Where does ChatGPT lie within the Gartner Hype Cycle?
ChatGPT – Distraction or Manna from heaven for business?
Where does ChatGPT lie within the Gartner Hype Cycle? Wherever you turn today, it’s hard to miss ChatGPT – or mentions thereof. From kids using it for their homework or wannabe entrepreneurs asking it to build the next app and earn them bajillions, its become part of our mainstream lives. Given the stressed macroeconomic cloud we are under, the question is if attention given to ChatGPT is a distraction or a portent of earth shattering breakthroughs to come.
Hiccups already?
There is already talk about putting shackles on AI’s & by extension ChatGPT’s tsunami of growth (a billion website visitors each month (Feb23) with a million users in Jan2023 – Source: SimilarWeb). Italy has already fired the first salvo banning it & other European states such as France are already researching on these lines. Canada is close behind. Challenges relate to ethics, privacy (collection of data without permission), protection of minors, security (frauds, deep fakes, scams, phishing), misinformation & much more importantly not knowing the extent of impact this tech will have on humanity (are you thinking of Terminator too?) – all of which affect business.
We have luminaries recommending restraint – with Elon Musk (who eventually turned around & started his own AI offering), Steve Wozniak, Jaan Tallinn (Skype co-founder), Evan Sharp (Pinterest co-founder), Chris Larsen (Ripple co-founder), author Yuval Noah Harari, politician Andrew Yang and a bevy of well-known computer scientists like Yoshua Bengio and Stuart Russell, plus researchers from academic and industrial heavyweights like Oxford, Cambridge, Stanford, Caltech, Columbia, Google, Microsoft and Amazon.
On the other side, Andrew Ng, arguably the father of the AI revolution, disagrees. He believes that a moratorium is a terrible idea and says “I’m seeing many new applications in education, healthcare, food, … that’ll help many people. Improving GPT-4 will help. Lets balance the huge value AI is creating vs. realistic risks.”
As you can see the hype surrounding new technologies can often make it difficult to understand what is truly groundbreaking and what is just another fad. Keeping up with these changes can be overwhelming, but the Technology Hype Framework, also known as the Gartner Hype Cycle, can help businesses make sense of new technologies and use them effectively in their strategies. We use this to evaluate ChatGPT through its lens.
But what is the Technology Hype Framework (THF)?
The Technology Hype Framework was first introduced in 1995 by Gartner, a leading research and advisory company. The framework is a graphical representation of the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies over time. It is a tool that helps people navigate the hype and understand the potential impact of new technologies.
The Technology Hype Framework consists of five stages: Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and Plateau of Productivity. Let’s explore each stage/phases in more detail.
The Hype Cycle consists of five phases:
- Technology Trigger: This is the first phase of the cycle, where a new technology is introduced and generates significant interest and buzz among early adopters, innovators, and investors.
- Peak of Inflated Expectations: In this phase, the hype around the technology reaches its peak, and everyone is talking about it. Expectations are high, and there is a lot of speculation about the potential of the technology.
- Trough of Disillusionment: This is where the hype starts to die down, and the limitations and challenges of the technology become apparent. This phase can be a difficult time for businesses that have invested heavily in the technology and are now struggling to see results.
- Slope of Enlightenment: In this phase, the technology starts to mature, and businesses begin to understand its potential and limitations. New use cases and applications for the technology start to emerge, and companies start to see tangible benefits.
- Plateau of Productivity: This is the final phase of the cycle, where the technology becomes mainstream and widely adopted. The technology is now well understood, and businesses have integrated it into their operations and marketing strategies.
Businesses can use the Technology Hype Framework in several ways. Firstly, by understanding where a particular technology is on the hype cycle, businesses can better anticipate the potential benefits and limitations of the technology. This understanding can help companies plan their marketing strategies and budget more effectively.
For example, if a technology is in the peak of inflated expectations phase, companies might want to focus their marketing efforts on building awareness and generating hype around the technology. On the other hand, if a technology is in the trough of disillusionment, companies might want to focus their efforts on highlighting the benefits and value of the technology to counter negative perceptions and build momentum.
Secondly, the Technology Hype Framework can help businesses identify new opportunities and use cases for a technology. For example, if a technology is in the slope of enlightenment phase, companies might want to explore new applications and use cases for the technology that are emerging as it matures.
Finally, it can help businesses make more informed decisions about investing in new technologies. By understanding where a technology is on the hype cycle and its potential benefits and limitations, businesses can make more informed decisions about whether and when to invest in a particular technology.
So where does ChatGPT lie in the framework?
ChatGPT can be placed under the Peak of Inflated Expectations phase under the Gartner Hype Cycle / framework. Expectations are high, and there is a lot of speculation about the potential of the technology.
In this phase, ChatGPT is seen as a groundbreaking technology that has the potential to revolutionize the field of natural language processing. Its ability to generate coherent and contextually appropriate responses to a wide range of questions and prompts is seen as a major breakthrough in AI and machine learning.
As we have seen, businesses and organizations are eager to adopt ChatGPT, and there is a rush to invest in solutions influenced by it. In the case of ChatGPT, this has led to a proliferation of language models and other AI technologies that are based on its architecture and approach.
However, it is important to note that the Peak of Inflated Expectations phase can also be a time of overinflated expectations and unrealistic projections. There is a risk that the potential benefits of ChatGPT may be exaggerated, and that businesses and organizations may invest heavily in the technology without fully understanding its limitations and challenges.
For example, one of the challenges associated with ChatGPT is the potential for bias in the data used to train the model. This can result in biased responses that reinforce existing stereotypes and prejudices. Additionally, there are concerns about the impact of ChatGPT on employment, privacy, and security. A common complaint is the lack of guardrails to prevent misuse.
While ChatGPT has significant potential in the field of natural language processing, it is important to approach it with caution during this phase. Businesses and organizations should be aware of the potential benefits and limitations of ChatGPT and other AI technologies, and should invest in them carefully and with a clear understanding of the risks and challenges involved.
In Conclusion
Chat GPT within the Gartner Hype Cycle
ChatGPT’s placement under the Peak of Inflated Expectations in the Gartner Hype Cycle highlights the groundbreaking potential of the technology as well as the challenges that need to be considered during this phase. By approaching ChatGPT with caution and a clear understanding of the risks and challenges involved, businesses and organizations can make the most of the technology without putting themselves at risk of overinflated expectations and unrealistic projections.
So is ChatGPT an amusing distraction or a digital messiah? The truth is probably somewhere between the two. With that in mind, it’s important for business leaders to balance ambition with realism when it comes to ChatGPT. Yes, it can be fun and immensely productive when it comes to new ideas, but it nevertheless has many limitations and certainly won’t transform your organization on its own. The best way to understand this is to look at some key applications of ChatGPT — which have already been well-documented — and explore where it could help, where it won’t and where it might even hamper you.